结外NK/T细胞淋巴瘤（鼻型）初治患者总生存期的预测模型列线图：一项多中心研究

The aim of this study was to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram for extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma, nasal-type (NKTCL). The clinical data from 1383 patients with NKTCL treated at 10 participating institutions between 2000 and 2011 were reviewed. A nomogram was developed that predicted overall survival (OS) based on the Cox proportional hazards model. To contrast the utility of the nomogram against the widely used Ann Arbor staging system, the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and the Korean Prognostic Index (KPI), we used the concordance index (C-index) and a calibration curve to determine its predictive and discriminatory capacity. The 5-year OS rate was 60.3% for the entire group. The nomogram included five important variables based on a multivariate analysis of the primary cohort: stage; age; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; lactate dehydrogenase; and primary tumor invasion. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram was able to predict 5-year OS accurately. The C-index of the nomogram for OS prediction was 0.72 for both cohorts, which was superior to the predictive power (range, 0.56-0.64) of the Ann Arbor stage, IPI and KPI in the primary and validation cohorts. The proposed nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of OS in patients with NKTCL. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.