全球精选文摘 - 估计需要接种疫苗预防人类乳头瘤病毒感染的人数及与人类乳头瘤病毒感染相关的死亡数

高级搜索

免费注册

首页

期刊文献

全球精选文摘

中国作者重要发表

爱思唯尔期刊精选全文

柳叶刀中文版精选全文

2009年诺贝尔奖得主文章

成功投稿经验系列访谈

2010年度诺贝尔奖得主

医药资讯

医学资讯

药品动态

诊疗指南

病例分析

数据库

会议精粹

柳叶刀流感峰会

2009世界高血压大会

辉瑞中国医学研究高峰论坛

上海东方呼吸病国际论坛

GAP-CCBC系列会议

精品书籍

爱思唯尔参考书

新书订购活动

疾病资源

专家博客

当前位置 > > > >

估计需要接种疫苗预防人类乳头瘤病毒感染的人数及与人类乳头瘤病毒感染相关的死亡数

Estimating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent diseases and death related to human papillomavirus infection

Brisson M, Van de Velde N, De Wals P, et al 2009/5/27 10:50:39

【发表评论】【全球专家评论】

打印| 推荐给好友

Can Med Assoc J, 2007,

专家评级：

★★★

循证评级：

View at Publisher

Abstract

Background:

A vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16 and 18 is now licensed for use in Canada and many other countries. We sought to estimate the number needed to vaccinate to prevent HPV-related diseases and death.

Methods:

A cohort model of the natural history of HPV infection was developed. Model simulations were based on 209 different parameter sets that reproduced Canadian HPV type-specific data for infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, cervical cancer and genital warts. The number needed to vaccinate was calculated as the number of women who would need to be vaccinated to prevent an HPV-related event during their lifetime.

Results:

Among 12-year-old girls, we estimated that the number needed to vaccinate to prevent an episode of genital warts would be 8 (80% credibility interval [CrI] 5–15) and a case of cervical cancer 324 (80% CrI 195–757). These estimates were based on the assumption that the vaccine procures lifelong protection and that its efficacy is 95%. If vaccine protection is assumed to wane at 3% per year, the predicted number needed to vaccinate would increase to 14 (80% CrI 6–18) and 9080 (80% CrI 1040–does not prevent), respectively. The latter number would be greatly reduced with the addition of a booster dose, to 480 (80% CrI 254–1572).

Interpretation:

Our model predictions suggest that vaccination with the currently available HPV vaccine may significantly reduce the incidence of genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cervical cancer. However, the benefits (particularly in terms of cervical cancer reduction) are highly dependent on the duration of vaccine protection, on which evidence is currently limited.

请登录后发表评论，点击此处登录。

全部学科

疾病资源中心

高血压	慢性阻塞性肺病
脂肪性肝病	糖尿病
卒中	肺癌
冠心病	子宫内膜异位症
结直肠癌	乳腺癌
心力衰竭	心律失常

病例分析 [栏目介绍]

甲状腺功能亢进合并黄疸

王燕燕王曙

上海交通大学附属瑞金医院内分泌科

患者，女，69岁。2009年1月无明显诱因下出现乏力，当时程度较轻，未予以重视。2009年3月患者乏力症状加重，尿色逐渐加深，大便习惯改变，颜色变淡。4月18日入我院感染科治疗，诉轻度头晕、心慌，体重减轻10kg。无肝区疼痛，无发热，无腹痛、腹泻、腹胀、里急后重，无恶性、呕吐等。入院半月前于外院就诊，查肝功能：ALT 601IU/L，AST 785IU/L，TBIL 97.7umol/L，白蛋白 41g/L，甲状腺功能：游离T3 30.6pmol/L，游离T4 51.9pmol/L，心电图示快速房颤。

更多>>>

医学数据库